‘Fat Leonard,’ once a power broker, could become pawn in U.S.-Venezuela diplomacy

Leonard Glenn Francis was as soon as an admiral-like determine in Southeast Asia, steering U.S. Navy ships to ports he managed and commanding a mercenary army aboard his own private warship. However his seize this previous week in Caracas might flip him right into a lowly pawn in a fraught recreation of diplomacy between the USA and Venezuela.

Interpol agents captured the Malaysian protection contractor referred to as “Fats Leonard” on Tuesday morning, roughly 16 days after he fled San Diego house arrest, as he sought to start a journey to Russia, in response to the U.S. Marshals Service and Interpol Venezuela Director Basic Carlos Gáfee Rondón.

However simply because he’s been apprehended, it doesn’t imply the 57-year-old Francis, the topic of a $40,000 reward, can be returned to the U.S. quickly — or ever.

Analysts who examine the tense relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela say the South American nation’s authorities might attempt to use Francis as a bargaining chip, more than likely in change for the lifting of sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro, members of his authorities and the nation’s all-important oil business.

“There’s an extradition treaty, however the query is how prepared Venezuela could be with out some reciprocation — like sanctions aid, for instance,” mentioned Brian Fonseca, director of the Institute for Public Coverage at Florida Worldwide College’s Faculty of Worldwide and Public Affairs.

“That’s how I feel that is in all probability going to play out,” mentioned Fonseca, a former protection intelligence analyst who has studied Venezuela in that position and in his work for the college. “It’s not as straightforward as honoring an extradition treaty. There generally is a mixture of sticks and carrots.”

When Gáfee Rondón, the Venezuelan Interpol official, first announced Francis’ arrest Wednesday in an Instagram post, his caption ended with a easy declaration: Francis could be turned over to Venezuelan judicial authorities to “provoke extradition procedures.”

However most observers agree the matter is considerably extra difficult than that.

“For the time being Venezuela and the U.S. wouldn’t have formal diplomatic relations, these had been damaged in January 2019 when Washington acknowledged and backed self-proclaimed ‘Interim President’ Juan Guaidó,” Ricardo Vaz, a author and editor with the web site Venezuelanalysis.com, informed the Union-Tribune on Friday.

Tensions between the nations date again to the rise of Hugo Chávez and his Bolivarian Revolution within the late Nineteen Nineties and early 2000s, and have continued with Maduro, in response to Fonseca.

Maduro, when he served as Chávez’s overseas minister, helped strengthen ties with nations akin to Russia, Turkey and Iran as Venezuela’s ties with the U.S. deteriorated over what Chávez’s authorities noticed as U.S. meddling, Fonseca mentioned.

“The U.S. has bounced between isolation and sanctions” towards Venezuela within the ensuing a long time, in response to Fonseca, who mentioned the U.S. was concerned in 2019 in attempting “to form of launch Juan Guaidó into the seat of the presidency.”

The “antagonistic relationship” turned extra tense throughout Donald Trump’s presidency because the Trump administration maintained that “all choices” — together with army intervention — had been “on the desk” in coping with Venezuela, Fonseca mentioned.

On the time, the nation was at one of many worst factors of what Human Rights Watch described as a mixture of “political, financial, human rights, and humanitarian crises” that left thousands and thousands hungry and compelled tons of of hundreds of refugees to flee the nation.

The Biden administration has continued the Trump coverage of recognizing Guaidó as the interim president whereas contemplating Maduro’s authorities illegitimate.

However Guaidó, the chief of Venezuela’s Nationwide Meeting, has “no actual authority or energy,” Fonseca mentioned.

Meaning Maduro’s authorities could have the last word say in what occurs to Francis and whether or not he ever faces extradition. On Friday, a Venezuelan political cartoonist published an image depicting Maduro as a tall, muscular basketball participant holding a ball, labeled “Fats Leonard,” over his head and out of attain of a scrawny Uncle Sam.

Venezuela’s Nationwide Meeting President and self-proclaimed interim President Juan Guaido speaks to the press in Caracas, Venezuela on Sept. 16, 2019.

(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

“The Maduro authorities has but to touch upon his detention, so it’s laborious as of now to foretell what is going to occur,” Vaz, from Venezuelanalysis, wrote in an e mail.

He mentioned Maduro’s authorities might cooperate as a method present the world, and multilateral organizations like Interpol, it’s nonetheless the reliable authority, in addition to stress its adherence to worldwide obligations and even present a goodwill gesture towards enhancing ties with Washington.

Alternatively, Venezuelan authorities say the U.S.’s unilateral sanctions violate worldwide legislation, Vaz wrote. The Maduro authorities additionally alleges Washington has politicized the U.S.’s federal prison case towards Alex Saab, a Colombian and shut ally of Maduro who was a particular envoy for Venezuela, serving to it conduct enterprise offers beneath the radar of the sanctions.

“In that sense, the Maduro administration is perhaps much less inclined to do U.S. authorities a favor,” in response to Vaz.

On this Sept. 9, 2021 file photograph, pedestrians stroll close to a poster asking for the liberty of Colombian businessman and Venezuelan particular envoy Alex Saab, and that reads in Spanish “They haven’t been capable of bend him,” in Caracas, Venezuela. Venezuela’s authorities quietly supplied in 2020 to launch imprisoned People, the so-called Citgo 6 together with two former Inexperienced Berets tied to a failed cross border raid, in change for the U.S. letting go Saab, a key financier of President Nicolás Maduro, who was extradited to Miami in Oct. 2021.

(Ariana Cubillos/AP)

Fonseca mentioned extraditions from Venezuela to the U.S. have occurred however have been uncommon. In 2010, Venezuela turned over Carlos “Beto” Renteria, a Colombian cocaine kingpin who had been indicted by a federal grand jury and was later convicted on drug costs. Reuters reported on the time that Venezuela had deported 49 suspected drug traffickers between 2006 and 2010, largely to Colombia and the U.S.

One of many attention-grabbing elements of Francis’ seize, in response to Fonseca, is that “he wasn’t destined for Venezuela” however was making an attempt to succeed in Russia.

The Related Press reported Friday, citing an nameless legislation enforcement supply acquainted with the case, that Francis supposed to board a aircraft to Venezuela’s Isla Margarita, a Caribbean island that Venezuela desires to show into a well-liked vacation spot for Russian vacationers, with 5 flights every week deliberate between Moscow and the island.

The official informed the AP that authorities tracked down Francis utilizing a cellphone quantity they had been supplied and positioned him in a Caracas neighborhood. Authorities then deployed a workforce of officers on the airport after a cab driver tipped them off that Francis was leaving a resort and headed there.

“The Venezuelans don’t care about Francis, apart from perhaps some intelligence they’ll extract,” Fonseca mentioned. “However the Venezuelans care that the People care.”

To be able to get Francis extradited, the U.S. is “going to have to present one thing up — both up entrance, or later by way of backdoor channels to avoid wasting face,” Fonseca predicted.

Even when the U.S. does supply one thing agreeable to Venezuela in change for Francis, extraditions “can take many months and even years to finish,” in response to the Division of Justice’s Workplace of Worldwide Affairs.

First, U.S. prosecutors should put together an extradition request, sometimes by working with the Workplace of Worldwide Affairs, in response to the DOJ. Then the State Division formally presents the request by way of diplomatic channels.

The method is then comprised of a judicial part and an govt part. A overseas decide will decide if the U.S.’s extradition request meets the necessities of the treaty after which will rule on whether or not the particular person needs to be extradited.

Subsequent, an govt authority — akin to a major minister or overseas affairs secretary — will make a remaining willpower whether or not to extradite the particular person. Every resolution could possibly be topic to a number of ranges of attraction, in response to the DOJ.

Additionally complicating issues are the precise phrases of the U.S.’s extradition treaty with Venezuela. It’s not clear whether or not the costs Francis has pleaded responsible to in U.S. District Courtroom — bribery, conspiracy to commit bribery and conspiracy to defraud the USA — match any of the 20 crimes listed within the treaty.

Crimes listed as larceny and acquiring cash by false pretenses could possibly be contenders, maybe.

Leonard Francis was residing beneath home arrest at this mansion, heart, in Torrey Highlands earlier than fleeing on Sept. 4, 2022.

(John Gastaldo/For The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Questions additionally stay about Francis’ well being — the extent of his medical issues have remained secret, although it’s identified he had kidney most cancers — and the way he’ll maintain up in a Venezuelan jail, the place he’s unlikely to take pleasure in the identical comforts he did within the multi-million greenback residence he escaped from in San Diego’s Torrey Highlands neighborhood.

However observers agree the questions round extradition are a lot much less pertinent for the time being than these round U.S. and Venezuela diplomacy.

“There have been indicators of a gap in latest months with White Home delegations visiting Caracas twice,” wrote Vaz. “However a reestablishment of ties is nowhere on the horizon with the wide-reaching financial blockade and help for Guaidó firmly in place.”

Fonseca mentioned so much will rely upon how priceless a bargaining chip Francis seems to be. In the event that they don’t imagine he might convey again a lot in return, they might “poke a finger within the eye of America” and ship him to Russia, making the U.S. look unhealthy for letting him escape and efficiently attain his chosen vacation spot.

“Nevertheless it opens up all of those questions,” Fonseca mentioned. “How will (the U.S.) make the request? What is going to they placed on the desk? Will Venezuela ask for every part and the kitchen sink, and overplay it? For now, all of these questions are particularly reasonable.”